So by now, unless you have been living under a rock, you
have probably heard that the Edmonton Oilers have axed coach Dallas Eakins. It
was a move that many pundits have been discussing should have happened for some
time. While people have speculated who should replace Eakins behind the bench,
I’m here to tell you that the perfect solution may have landed right into the
Oilers laps.
Before
I get to who the Oilers should hire, I’d like to explain some of my reasoning
on who the club should get. Most people seem to think that the Oilers need a
defensive coach who will plug up some of their holes in their defense and give
the goalies a better chance at stopping the puck. You can simply hear the
collective voices of all the experts: if the Oilers could just shut people down
their superior talent should win them many games. That’s the missing link a
coach that will teach them how to play team defense and that winning will
follow. My response is that all of those
opinions are simply poppycock. For me there are several reasons why this is the
case. My first reason is that you need to tailor a system to the players on
your roster. While you may think that Nail Yakupov is a waste of space and you
would like to have him off your roster, while he is on your roster you should
make the most of his abilities. I don’t think Yakupov will ever be an effective
defender, so put him in position for what he does best; scoring goals on the
offensive side of the ice. That goes for several of the other talented forwards
out there as well. I don’t want Taylor Hall locking down a winger, I want Hall
causing a rush for the Oilers. I don’t want to make it seem like I feel like
defense isn’t important, because it most certainly is. My opinion is that
players work best when they are asked to do roles that favors them the best.
The Oilers could cause havoc with an aggressive forecheck using what should be
their superior skill to hem opposing teams in their own zone. With youth on
their side, they could wear teams down over the course of the game. It is a
battle they can win. On the flip side, playing defense is a battle I don’t see
the team winning. Other than guys like Beniot Pouliot, their roster isn’t
equipped to play a shut down type of game. In some ways it is just a losing
proposition. Part of coaching is putting your players in a position to succeed.
The most effective coaches throughout history don’t necessarily stray from
their system, but tweak it so their players can succeed. Putting a defense
first coach in my opinion goes against that. Another one of my reasons, is the
Oilers defense isn’t that bad to begin with.
The
Oilers defense has been a punch line over the course of several seasons.
Multiple highlights show blown or just lazy coverage leading to a slam dunk
goal for the other team. The Oilers are 2nd to last in goals against
per game giving up well over 3 goals a game. The solution for a defensive coach
seems so easy. How can I possibly defend
this unit? As I am about to tell you, the stats seem to indicate the Oilers are
about an average NHL defensive team. The first stat is the Oilers are almost
exactly midpack in terms of shots against per game. Some people may counter
that this stat is deceiving. First, they will point that those shots the other
team are getting are higher quality, which isn’t captured in the stat. In
addition, the other argument is that teams with the lead may stop pressuring as
much opting instead just to get pucks deep and keep it away from their own end.
There are stats that dispute these counters. According to advanced stats, the
Oilers are 10th best in Corsi against in 5 on 5 situations. In other
words they are better than average in keeping the other team from possessing
the puck. For those who think this stat is padded by blowouts, they are actually
only 19th 5 on 5 down 2 or more goals. In terms of Fenwick
percentage, they are 15th in Fenwick against. Nothing spectacular,
but a sign of at least a competent unit. The real problem is goaltending.
Schrivens and Fasth have proven to be quite a screen door when it comes to
stopping the puck. Both sport save percentage in the .800 range when the NHL
average is about .915. Some of these goals could be caused by bad defense, but
a lot of them are not. I would argue most teams have lapses in coverage during
games, but good NHL goaltenders make the save. Replacing them with a
statistical average goalie would have already yielded almost 30 fewer goals.
Even replacing them with a .900 save percentage yields 25 fewer goals. The
goaltending is the main problem, not the defense. This leads me to who I think
should be coach. There was an interesting turn of events last week across the
country that could answer Edmonton’s prayers.
Last
week the Ottawa Senators made their own coaching move, they fired Paul Maclean
a coach with a measure of some success the past few years. This is exactly the
coach that Edmonton needs. Paul Maclean brings an up tempo style that would
mesh well with this roster. A lot of Edmonton’s problems lie with their
surprising anemic offense. They rank near the bottom in Fenwick and Corsi for
the season. What should be the mighty Edmonton Oilers offense is scoring under
2 goals a game. During the past three seasons. Maclean’s Senators were top 3 in
Corsi for all three seasons and were top 3 in Fenwick the past two. Ottawa’s
defense also hovered just outside the top 10 in Corsi and Fenwick against
suggesting that his defenses didn’t struggle because of the increased tempo.
Maclean also eased out every ounce of talent in some pretty underwhelming teams.
While no one is going to suggest guys like Jason Spezza and an aging Daniel
Alfredsson were stiffs, but in comparison the Oilers skill players would
represent a world of riches. The offense could cover up for a defense while
guys like Darnell Nurse are developing and until maybe a key free agent or two
comes into the organization to round out the team. More importantly, it would
give the team a distinct identity and make them one of the best watches in the
whole league. The Walrus is just a gift from the heavens to the Oilers, one
they would be foolish to pass up. This guy led a team who perennially rank near
the bottom of the NHL in salary to the playoffs during his time there. One
thing Edmonton will do is spend money. They may not be Toronto, but Maclean who
have several more toys in his chest than at any point in Ottawa.
Yet
despite this, Edmonton will fumble this away like they do everything else. The
ownership group is clueless and the popular P.R. route would be to hire the
defensive coach. While I’m sure my argument will never be the popular
conception of the situation, I feel that it is the right one and it isn’t even
close. So I beg you Craig Mactavish, for the overall betterment of your team,
hire Paul Maclean. It will be a move you will not regret.
